Possible scenario
Budget Credibility Stabilizes
35% Chance
Investors decide the government's €43 billion savings package is credible enough to prevent a near-term loss of market access. French spreads remain elevated, but demand from domestic insurers, banks and pension funds keeps the selloff from becoming disorderly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Utilities +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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