Possible scenario
Transparency Deal Holds
45% Chance
María Corina Machado and U.S. officials reach a workable disclosure arrangement for oil sales, likely through Treasury reporting, escrow oversight, or a third-party monitor. This is the most likely path because both sides benefit from preserving post-Maduro oil flows while reducing accusations of opaque U.S. control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- CVX+1.1%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.