Possible scenario
Dispute Escalates
25% Chance
Machado's demand becomes a public clash with the Trump administration over who controls Venezuelan oil proceeds after Maduro's capture. The dispute raises the risk of administrative delays, congressional scrutiny, and temporary uncertainty around Venezuelan crude exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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