Possible scenario
Audit Finds Problems
20% Chance
Machado's transparency push leads to an audit that finds either documentation gaps or more serious irregularities in sales, discounts, or escrow allocations. The outcome matters because Venezuelan oil revenues are central to the transition authority's legitimacy and to U.S. control over post-Maduro assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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