Possible scenario
Rotation Gains Traction
18% Chance
Investors use the hedge-fund technology unwind to rotate into sectors with lower duration, steadier cash flows, or cheaper valuations. This is not a market crash scenario; it is a leadership change away from the AI trade that dominated 2025.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Healthcare +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.