Possible scenario
Race reaches runoff
20% Chance
Neither Ossoff nor Collins reaches the required majority threshold, likely because minor-party or write-in support prevents a clean November result. Georgia again becomes the center of national Senate spending and turnout operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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