Possible scenario
Operational Friction Slows
15% Chance
The pilot remains active but grows more slowly than advocates expect as broker-dealers, custodians, transfer agents, and compliance teams work through settlement, disclosure, and investor-protection questions. The result is not a reversal, but a slower and more tightly supervised rollout.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- COIN-1.8%
- NDAQ-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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