Possible scenario
Controlled Pilot Rollout
45% Chance
The SEC pilot proceeds largely as designed, with permissioned venues limiting access to regulated broker-dealers, qualified custodians, and approved market makers. Early activity concentrates in large-cap U.S. equities and focuses on settlement efficiency rather than broad retail speculation.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- NDAQ+1.8%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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