Possible scenario
U.S.-Iran Escalation
18% Chance
The Sirik attack becomes part of a broader U.S.-Iran military exchange after further threats to shipping or U.S. personnel. Washington focuses on coastal missile batteries, drones, radar, and IRGC command nodes rather than Iranian leadership targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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