Possible scenario
Contained Strike Cycle
38% Chance
The Sirik blasts are treated by Iran as another limited Israeli or covert strike rather than a trigger for full-scale retaliation. Tehran prioritizes preserving remaining missile production and coastal-defense assets after repeated strikes since March.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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