Possible scenario
US Strikes IRGC
27% Chance
Washington concludes that repeated mine hits despite escorts require kinetic action against IRGC naval assets. The most likely response is calibrated strikes on mine boats, radar sites, and coastal launch facilities while avoiding Iranian oil infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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