Possible scenario
Mines Keep Strait Shut
40% Chance
Iran and the IRGC continue laying mines and publicizing tanker strikes to prove U.S. escorts cannot guarantee safe passage. Shipowners, insurers, and charterers reduce Hormuz transits while the U.S. Fifth Fleet expands minesweeping and convoy operations from Bahrain.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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