Possible scenario
Rights Backlash Deepens
19% Chance
Egyptian authorities interpret the waiver as evidence that Washington will not impose meaningful costs for repression. Arrests, prison conditions and restrictions on NGOs become the dominant story, forcing U.S. officials to defend the decision repeatedly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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