Possible scenario
Congress Reasserts Conditions
24% Chance
A coalition of Senate Democrats, House progressives and rights organizations pushes back against the waiver. The result is unlikely to cancel the full aid package, but it could create narrower reporting rules or partial holds on future Egypt funding.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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