Possible scenario
Sustained Strike Campaign
45% Chance
Russia continues nightly missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and nearby energy infrastructure, consistent with its stated plan to intensify pressure on Ukraine's major cities. Ukraine's air defenses intercept a large share of incoming weapons, but civilian casualties and localized outages persist.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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