Possible scenario
Escalation Risk Broadens
20% Chance
The strike cycle expands beyond Kyiv and Kharkiv into energy facilities, ports, and military logistics on both sides. This does not become a NATO-Russia confrontation, but it raises short-term geopolitical risk premia in energy, defense, and volatility markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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