Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
25% Chance
The latest civilian casualties strengthen Kyiv's case for additional air-defense missiles, radars, and repair support from NATO members. The most plausible policy response is faster delivery of Patriot, IRIS-T, SAMP/T, and NASAMS interceptors rather than direct Western military involvement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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