Possible scenario
Wider Military Exchange
30% Chance
The abandonment of Camp Buehring becomes the trigger for a broader but still bounded U.S.-Iran exchange. Iran tests U.S. resolve with additional missile and drone attacks, while the Pentagon targets launch infrastructure and command nodes inside Iran or near its coast.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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