Possible scenario
Managed U.S. Repositioning
35% Chance
Washington treats the Camp Buehring abandonment as a force-protection emergency rather than the start of a full regional war. U.S. Central Command disperses troops across Qatar, Bahrain, naval platforms, and hardened Kuwaiti facilities while preserving strike capacity against Iran-linked launch sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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