Possible scenario
Renewed Military Escalation
15% Chance
The least stable path is a return to kinetic action, either through Israeli strikes on Iranian assets or Iranian retaliation against regional targets. This would turn Lavrov's institutional critique into part of a wider geopolitical confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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