Possible scenario
Inspections Crisis Deepens
25% Chance
Iran uses Russian diplomatic support to justify continued limits on IAEA access. Western governments respond with threats of fresh sanctions or censure, increasing the nuclear file's importance for oil and risk markets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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