Regional Proxy Escalation

A militia attack or attempted attack on remaining U.S. diplomatic, advisory, or Kurdish-region targets triggers a sharper confrontation involving Washington, Baghdad, and Tehran-aligned factions. This is less likely than containment but remains plausible given the post-withdrawal security vacuum and the history of militia strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.