Possible scenario
Negotiated Containment
40% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, senior Shiite clerics, and Iran-linked political blocs contain the dispute through phased integration of some Popular Mobilization Forces units into state security structures. This is the most likely path because Baghdad has incentives to avoid civil conflict after the U.S. withdrawal while preserving ties with armed factions embedded in Iraqi politics.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- TTE+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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