Possible scenario
Localized Militia Violence
30% Chance
Several militia factions resist disarmament through armed checkpoints, convoy harassment, and limited attacks on Iraqi security forces. Violence remains mostly localized because major factions still have strong incentives to avoid a full rupture with Baghdad.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.