Possible scenario
Rate Volatility Returns
25% Chance
The drop in freight proves unstable because vessel supply remains constrained by geopolitics, insurance costs, and the US-China port-fee overhang. Asian buyers again become cautious on US crude if delivered economics deteriorate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Tickers
- FRO+4.6%
- DHT+4.2%
- INSW+3.8%
- XOM-0.3%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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