Possible scenario
Freight Normalizes
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the record US Gulf-to-Asia tanker spike proves temporary as more non-sanctioned VLCC capacity returns and charterers resume spot buying. US crude becomes workable again for some Asian refiners, but freight remains above pre-Iran-blockade levels.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- DHT-3.2%
- FRO-2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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