Possible scenario
Trade Settlement Expansion
20% Chance
Moscow expands the legal crypto framework beyond domestic circulation into trade settlement with friendly jurisdictions. Energy exporters, metals producers, and importers use licensed intermediaries to reduce reliance on correspondent banks and dollar-clearing channels.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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