Possible scenario
Stabilization Rally Holds
42% Chance
State-backed buying convinces domestic institutions that Beijing is again willing to defend key equity benchmarks. The most likely outcome is a short-lived but tradeable rebound concentrated in CSI 300 names, brokerages, large consumer stocks, and selected technology leaders.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.1%
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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