Possible scenario
Rally Fades Quickly
28% Chance
Investors treat the buying as another liquidity bridge rather than a solution to weak earnings, property stress, and household confidence. The market bounce fades as traders demand more direct fiscal or balance-sheet repair measures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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