Possible scenario
Managed Maritime Standoff
38% Chance
Iran asserts practical control through inspections, notices to mariners, and harassment, while avoiding direct fire on U.S. forces. Washington keeps carrier groups nearby and expands escorted convoys, but both sides preserve room for diplomacy through Oman and Qatar.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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