Possible scenario
Limited Naval Exchange
23% Chance
A close encounter between IRGC boats, drones, or coastal missile batteries and U.S.-escorted shipping escalates into a limited exchange. Both governments initially frame the clash as defensive and contained, but markets price a meaningful risk of further strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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