Possible scenario
Resilience Repriced
45% Chance
Investors treat the upward Q2 GDP revision as confirmation that the U.S. economy has more momentum than forecasters expected. The market reaction is modestly risk-on, with cyclicals and financials benefiting while Treasury yields edge higher.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Technology +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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