Possible scenario
Fed Patience Extends
25% Chance
The growth surprise is interpreted less as a pure risk-on signal and more as evidence the Federal Reserve has little urgency to ease policy. Rate-sensitive sectors lag as Treasury yields and short-rate expectations move higher.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.7%
- Technology -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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