Possible scenario
Details Temper Enthusiasm
20% Chance
Investors look past the headline beat and focus on the composition of the revision. If growth was boosted by inventories, government spending, or less durable categories, markets may see limited read-through for future earnings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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