Possible scenario
October Hike Proceeds
40% Chance
Warsh's refusal to guide markets keeps the October meeting live, and the recent hot inflation print makes a 25 bp hike the single most likely outcome. The end of explicit forward guidance lets the FOMC move without having pre-committed in speeches.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Utilities -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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