Possible scenario
Hawkish October Hold
30% Chance
The FOMC could decide that ending forward guidance means preserving optionality rather than rushing into an October hike. A hold paired with hawkish language would be consistent with the October 7 minutes showing no urgency, while still acknowledging the inflation setback.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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