Possible scenario
Data Softens Quickly
18% Chance
A softer labor or spending report before the meeting could make the hot inflation print look less decisive. In that case, Warsh's no-guidance framework gives the Fed room to avoid an October hike without formally reversing course.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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