Possible scenario
Retaliation Escalates Conflict
20% Chance
Russia responds to the strike with new attacks on Ukrainian power, refining, or port infrastructure. This keeps energy-security risk elevated and increases the chance that NATO states, insurers, and traders reassess exposure to the Black Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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