Possible scenario
Exports Stay Disrupted
30% Chance
Ukraine’s attack causes a more durable interruption to Russian refined-product exports. The Trump-Putin diesel deal remains formally in place, but buyers face delays, uncertainty over cargo origin, and tighter seaborne diesel availability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials -0.5%
Tickers
- VLO+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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