Possible scenario
Deal Survives Strike
35% Chance
The most likely path is that Moscow and Washington keep the diesel arrangement alive despite the Ukrainian strike. Russia repairs or reroutes export flows, while Kyiv signals it can keep targeting infrastructure tied to Russian war revenue.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Tickers
- VLO+0.7%
- MPC+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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