Possible scenario
Duterte Survives Trial
21% Chance
Even with the reduced threshold, the Marcos camp fails to hold enough senators together through the final vote. Sara Duterte survives politically damaged but remains the most visible opposition figure to Marcos.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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