Possible scenario
Court Narrows Senate Rule
34% Chance
Sara Duterte’s lawyers, backed by Duterte-aligned senators, challenge the Senate rule change before the Supreme Court. The justices are likely to treat a reduced conviction threshold as a constitutional question because impeachment conviction has traditionally required two-thirds of the Senate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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