Possible scenario
Conviction And Removal
30% Chance
The lower threshold gives the Marcos-aligned bloc enough votes to convict Sara Duterte on impeachment charges. Removal would be a major victory for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and would reshape the 2028 presidential race.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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