Possible scenario
Inquiry Gains Momentum
35% Chance
The new testimony makes it harder for Benjamin Netanyahu to frame the UAE warning as bureaucratic noise. Opposition parties and bereaved-family groups press for a state commission of inquiry, while coalition partners try to limit its scope.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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