Possible scenario
Coalition Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
The warning dispute becomes a vehicle for coalition partners to extract concessions or distance themselves from Netanyahu. The probability of early elections rises, though a government collapse is still not the base case.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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