Possible scenario
States Move First
20% Chance
Republican-led states use the Supreme Court's June 2025 ruling and the HHS probe as justification to accelerate their own exclusions of Planned Parenthood from Medicaid networks. This produces a patchwork of state actions rather than a single nationwide federal cutoff.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.