Possible scenario
Negotiated Pause
20% Chance
The rapid federal advance creates leverage for Addis Ababa but also raises international pressure to prevent another humanitarian catastrophe. The African Union, United States, and UN push for a pause that preserves federal battlefield gains while allowing aid access.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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