Possible scenario
Federal Consolidation
38% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force, supported by Eritrean units, uses control of Mekelle and Adigrat to secure the main northern road network. Tigray forces avoid decisive conventional battles and fall back toward rural highlands and western supply routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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