Hard-Right Breakout

13%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A stronger-than-expected showing by Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism gives Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich decisive coalition leverage. This is less likely than a narrow or centrist outcome but would carry the largest immediate geopolitical risk premium.

What it moves

Industrials+2.0%
Consumer Services−1.0%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?