Possible scenario
Alme Republican Recovery
31% Chance
Kurt Alme and national Republicans successfully frame Bodnar as a Democratic-aligned independent rather than a centrist alternative. Montana's partisan baseline reasserts itself, especially if rural turnout strengthens and GOP voters return home.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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